NAR Forecasts 4.71 Million Existing-Home Sales, Improved Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024
Dec 15, 2023
Key Highlights
- NAR predicts 4.71 million existing-home sales in 2024, up 13.5% from 4.1 million anticipated in 2023.
- Annual median home prices are expected to remain largely unchanged at the national level in 2024, for the second straight year, modestly improving affordability from rising income.
- Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. join five other metropolitan areas among NAR’s top 10 housing markets with the most pent-up housing demand in 2024.
WASHINGTON (December 13, 2023) – NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts that 4.71 million existing homes will be sold, the housing market is expected to grow, and Austin, Texas will be the top real estate market to watch in 2024 and beyond. Yun unveiled the association's forecast yesterday during NAR's fifth annual year-end real estate summit: The Year Ahead.
Yun predicts home sales will begin to rise next year – by 13.5% compared to 2023, and the median home price will reach $389,500 – an increase of 0.9% from this year.
"Metro markets in southern states will likely outperform others due to faster job increases, while markets in the Midwest will experience gains from being in the most affordable region."
Yun expects rent prices to calm down further in 2024, which will hold down the consumer price index. He predicts foreclosure rates will stay at historically low levels in 2024, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.
Yun forecasts that U.S. GDP will grow by 1.5%, avoiding a recession, with net new job additions slowing to 1.7 million in 2024, compared to 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022. After eclipsing 8% in late 2023, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% and that the Fed will cut rates four times – calming inflationary conditions – in response to slower economic activity.
Yun also foresees 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, including 1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily.
Top 10 Real Estate Markets with the Most Pent-Up Housing Demand in 2024
NAR identified 10 real estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand, which it expects to outperform other metro areas in 2024. In order, the markets are as follows:
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
- Dayton-Kettering, Ohio
- Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pennsylvania
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
- Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Delaware-Maryland
- Portland-South Portland, Maine
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia
"The demand for housing will recover from falling mortgage rates and rising income," Yun said. "In addition, housing inventory is expected to rise by around 30% as more sellers begin to list after delaying selling over the past two years. The selected top 10 U.S. markets will experience faster recovery in home sales."
NAR selected the top 10 real estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand in 2024 based on how they compared to the national level on the following economic indicators: 1) more "returning" buyers; 2) lower home price appreciation; 3) more renters who can afford to buy the median-priced home; 4) more potential sellers; 5) a larger decrease in remote workers; 6) more affordable listings for first-time buyers; 7) stronger job growth; 8) faster income growth; 9) most high-earner millennial renters moving into the area; and 10) lower violent crime rate.
About the National Association of Realtors®
The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term Realtor® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of Realtors® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
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