Silicon Valley's 4-County Housing Market Cooled Together in Q3 2025
Feb 27, 2026
Q3 always cools. That is not a red flag. That is a calendar.
Silicon Valley's housing market runs on a predictable rhythm. Q2 is the hot-selling season. Families move before school starts. Tech workers exercise options before midyear. Bidding wars peak. Then Q3 arrives and the market catches its breath.
What made Q3 2025 worth examining closely is not the cooling itself. It is that four counties cooled together.
Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, and Santa Cruz all share one economic driver: the Silicon Valley tech economy. When Apple, Google, Meta, and Nvidia slow hiring, real estate feels it. When stock compensation is worth less, premium home sales drop. When remote work shifts, commute tradeoffs change.
In Q3 2025, 5,686 single-family homes sold across these four counties. Prices eased. Days on market stretched. Competition softened slightly. And Santa Cruz, the tech bedroom community over the hill, was the only county where sales volume actually increased.
Is this seasonal normalization? Is it something deeper? The honest answer is that Q4 will be the telling quarter. Watch this space.
If you are a homebuyer, there is more room to negotiate than there has been in years. Use it wisely because this is still a seller's market.
š” WHAT YOU WILL LEARN:
- Why all four counties saw price declines and longer days on market
- The tech economy connection linking these four housing markets
- What $742 to $1,190 per square foot reveals about Bay Area market tiers
- How sale-to-list ratios (99% to 105%) expose shifting homebuyer behavior
- Why Santa Cruz is Silicon Valley's bedroom community over the hill
If you are a home seller, pricing accurately from day one is no longer optional. The days of testing the market with a high number are over for now.
Attorneys and accountants trust Pat Kapowich when the transaction cannot afford mistakes. Probate. Partition actions. Liquidation of donated real estate. Court-supervised sales. The Silicon Valley Association of Realtors appointed Pat as a presiding officer in professional standards hearings during the dot-com fallout. The Santa Clara County Association of Realtors enlisted Pat to rebuild the Ombudsman program in the aftermath of the 2008 housing crisis. When the transaction has legal consequences, experience is not optional.
Thinking about a move? Reach out. No pressure, just a straight conversation.
Pat Kapowich, California Real Estate Broker since 1988, CA DRE 00979413 408-245-7700 pat@siliconvalleybroker.com SiliconValleyBroker.com
Pat writes the Market Wise real estate advice column for the Mercury News and Bay Area News Group. Live Bay Area market charts at SiliconValleyBroker.com/market
Know someone planning a move? Share this post or simply pass along my name.
Data sources: MLSListings MLS Reports, November 1 through 14, 2025. This is Video 1 of 3 in the Q3 2025 Regional Analysis Series.
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KEY TAKEAWAYS / BULLET POINTS
- All four Silicon Valley tech corridor counties — Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, and Santa Cruz — saw price declines in Q3 2025, ranging from 1% to 10% quarter over quarter
- Santa Clara County posted the steepest drop: median fell from $2,120,000 to $1,900,000 — a 10% decline in one quarter
- San Mateo County median: $1,925,000 — down 6%, with price per square foot at $1,190, the highest of all four counties
- Alameda County remained the most competitive with a 105% sale-to-list ratio, yet prices still declined 6%
- Santa Cruz County was the outlier: only 1% price decline and the only county where sales volume increased (+4%), reflecting its lifestyle-driven, less frenzied market
- Price per square foot ranged from $742 (Alameda) to $1,190 (San Mateo) — a gap that continues to drive homebuyer migration from the Peninsula to the East Bay
- 5,686 single-family homes sold across the four counties in Q3 2025, covering approximately 4.6 million residents
- Ultra-premium segment softening: homes above $4.25 million declined 28% in Santa Clara County and 32% in San Mateo County quarter over quarter
- For homebuyers: more inventory, less competition, and room to use contingencies
- For home sellers: accurate pricing from day one is no longer optional — it is essential
